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MyColdwater.com's Recommendations (UPDATED):
1. The media is still awash with scary, political and often contradictory information. We just don't know enough about the virus yet to proclaim everyone "safe." Continue to follow social distancing recommendations including 6 foot separation and face masks.
2. There is strong evidence for, albeit impossible to prove, that the virus was bioengineered in a lab and accidentally escaped. However there is a huge pile of evidence mounting that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has covered up and lied about the virus at every turn, endangering billions of people and throwing the world into chaos. Senator Ben Sasse said, "Without commenting on any classified information, this much is painfully obvious: The Chinese Communist Party has lied, is lying, and will continue to lie about coronavirus to protect the regime." Investigations need to made, and the CCP needs to be held criminally liable. Let your legislators know how you feel!
3. Try to find fair, balanced news sources that are not driven by political agendas. We recommend NTD News. It is refreshing to read about states successfully opening up and to hear daily new investigations or revelations about the CCP, instead of worst-case scenario virus forecasts all the time. MyColdwater.com will also continue to independently monitor Michigan vs. Sweden stats. (Sweden, by the way, is also calling for investigations into WHO and the CCP.)
4. [NEW] Because the government continues to use the CCP Virus as a political issue - BOTH sides - I'm becoming increasingly convinced that it is up to US, you and I at a local level, to solve the problem ourselves. Track the virus with me on this page; watch local news about case updates (going up or going down). Come up with your own creative ideas for social distancing and other protections without getting rid of fun. Coldwater's big trick or treating success was an example of that (e.g., candy delivered by chutes). Wear masks. Someone recently suggested to me N95 masks. Have kids get together in SMALL gatherings instead of large groups. Watch movies at home. Work from home. Order groceries via Shipt. Buy Grandma an Alexa. We can do all this stuff and more much more effectively than "one size fits all" orders from government.
MAY 2021 UPDATE - WHERE ARE WE AT?
It's been over a year, and we have the vaccine now, but it still seems like we don't understand this virus. Despite the vaccine, Michigan cases have been UP most of the winter, and strict policies continue. Texas, on the other hand, eliminated mask requirements and after that saw their cases go DOWN. Are lockdowns a failed policy, or is Texas benefitting from a warmer climate? (Even Dr. Fauci was puzzled when asked about it.)
In any case, here in Michigan it looks like we are going to be wearing masks for a LONG time. As per the graph above, we're promised the mask requirements will be lifted when we hit the 70% vaccination level, but that might not happen for a LONG time as more and more people are deciding NOT to get the experimental vaccine and the vaccinations per day goes way down.
The Michigan policies are puzzling because the goal of lockdowns, assuming that they work, is to slow the spread to buy time until those at risk of death can get the vaccine. Well, by now those at risk of death have probably gotten the vaccine. For the rest of us, it's more like the flu. Are we crippling our economy because of something like the flu? Or are we admitting the vaccine might not work, so we have to keep restricting things for a LONG time?
It seems we have no choice but to continue to watch the numbers, do more research, and try to make the best decisions for our families. I think the freedom to make our OWN choice is CRITICAL, especially since government leaders still can't agree on virus policies. But this should also be done with respect for others, so if your neighbor is feeling more threatened by the virus, wear a mask when around them, even if you don't wear it in other situations.
CASES/DEATHS PER DAY - MICHIGAN VS SWEDEN
The virus continues to surprise us... so let's look at the data together, and let's do our own research, and try to figure out what is best to do.
(Click on any graph to get to data source: Detroit Free Press and Reuters.)
Check back frequently for graph updates (typically once a week, though note that sources are having trouble getting data from Sweden and it typically updates twice a month.)
LATE NOVEMBER UPDATE
This information page is starting to be more like a blog. It seemed SO simple at first (i.e., in March)... temporary lockdown, flatten the curve, we beat the virus. But now the virus is coming back for some reason, and even Sweden is caving and doing their first mandatory restrictions.
So WHAT do we do? What is the best advice for your family? At this point, we should recognize that NO one has the answer yet, including the govenrment which is now inflicting some pretty arbitrary restrictions on us - e.g., uring us to cancel Thanksgiving plans, but allowing us to pack into Walmart to get groceries. So... I wish I could give you THE right answer. Instead, I can only encourage you to do your own research and try to find the best answer on your own. I will help by continuing to track Michigan vs. Sweden, and anything else significant I find (and you can Email me if you have some thoughts, too.)
I will say again, though, that I don't trust that the govnernment has it right. NO one has the answer. So don't just blindly go along with all government decrees. WE (you and I) are better equipped to figure this out... see my previous "blog" entry below!
EARLY NOVEMBER UPDATE
The CCP Virus (COVID-19) continues to surprise us. Michigan cases are now so high they are 3x what they were during the April peak. But even with 3x the cases we are only at one-fourth of the deaths. BUT... 40 deaths/day and climbing is still not to be ignored!
Let's do some simple math. A typical flu season results in 36,000 deaths annually. Michigan has 10 million people and the U.S. has 330 millon so we should expect 3% of 36,000 or about 1,080 deaths from the flu in Michigan annually. If the virus is killing 40 Michiganders a day, that's 14,600 deaths annually, which is 13.5x normal deaths. And that assumes deaths doesn't go up even more. So it's not terrible like in April, but it should be of everyone's concern! And yes, the young are almost guaranteed not to die, but the elderly are at high risk. So we don't want them to get it, and we don't want to be the ones spreading it.
Is the virus real? Um, once again, yes. Even Sweden, which baffled the world for a long time and seemed to be immune to the Second Wave, now is also seeing their deaths slowly creep up. I'll continue to monitor both Michigan and Sweden on this page.
In October I called for a non-partisan solution. I haven't seen much of that. And now the media is so focused on the election that the CCP virus is being forgotten. Not good. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that it is people like YOU and I in the community that will do the most to help solve this problem, not our government. Here's a comment I made to a post tonight (11/12) on Facebook:
"We simply cannot shut the state down again; but with cases on the rise we canít do nothing either. And we also have to respect personal choice and privacy. And we have to not let the governor issue orders willy-nilly outside of legislative process yet we canít bog ourselves down with months of bureaucracy either. What a tall order! I would love to see both parties work together on solutions. As it is Iím upset at BOTH parties trying to create sides and using the virus for political advantage. Basically Iím fed up with the way it has been handled and am kind of giving up on government to solve this problem. You know who is doing the best job? Local people like you and me. I see businesses doing very creative stuff with social distancing, shields, delivery options, drive thru options, Zoom meetings, trick or treating chutes... WE are the ones actually getting stuff done (while our leaders just argue and make speeches in a sanitized environment far away from the real world)."
THE OCTOBER SURPRISE
Cases keep going up and up, as you've probably heard trumpted in the news. The GOOD news is that deaths are still nowhere near where they were in April. However it's starting to go over 20 deaths/day again. So many people got excited about ganging up on Whitmer and the lockdowns and masks, but we have to be wise here. What we really need is a non-political, non-partisan plan. We want to:
The unusual trend worldwide of cases going up but deaths not is not being covered much domestically but is being looked at abroad. Here's a very interesting YouTube video from Australia to watch. Sweden is specifically mentioned in the video (which we have been tracking on this page).
SECOND WAVE TRACKING (JULY)
The latest buzz word in the media is "Second Wave", and in some places of the U.S. partial lockdowns are returning. Is there really a second wave, and are these lockdowns necessary?
Let's look at the data [see top of this page for July average daily cases & deaths]. Average daily cases is way up (July 2020), which is why the Governor has ordered the mandatory face masks. BUT... look at average daily deaths. It's not up at all. Cases up but deaths not? Clearly the virus is becoming less deadly and we are winning!
As we mentioned in March, there could be a 3-8 week lag time between cases and deaths. So let's keep monitoring the graphs. If a month goes by and deaths STILL doesn't go up, then maybe we don't need mandatory masks, and people will feel more comfortable sending their kids back to face-to-face school which they desperately need for their developmental growth and health.
In the meantime, wear the masks. It's the least we can do, until we are sure. At least stores and restaurants are still open.
Click here to read an interesting opinion from someone who has looked at the data and sees no danger from a Second Wave.
The Second Wave could also be the mutated form of COVID-19, which spreads even more easily, but is substantially less deadly - watch video here (7/13/2020).
MyColdwater.com continues to track Michigan vs. Sweden. Sweden never had a full lockdown, and they continue to do fine. Their curves look almost the same as Michigan. In fact their "Second Wave" seems to be fizzling out already. Don't be brainwashed by the media. Don't even just take our word for it. Look at the numbers and YOU decide.
FIRST WAVE MICHIGAN CCP VIRUS (COVID-19) Q&A
After over a month of quarantine, people are going crazy. National and local press briefings, which used to be helpful, have degenerated into political discussions. Most hospitals are not filling up, and restless people think COVID-19 is not dangerous, and they are staging demonstrations in Lansing. Strong evidence is appearing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) vastly underreported COVID-19 deaths; yet a new video from two doctors in California has them claiming that the mortality of COVID-19 is the same as the common flu. With all the disinformation going on, WHAT THE HECK do we do? What do we believe?
We at MyColdwater.com are a local family just like you, and we want to find out the truth so we can do what is best for our family. We have created this page to summarize what we have found out. But we encourage you to do your own research too. Don't just trust a single sourrce. The fact is, this virus is still so new, no one is exactly sure what will happen or how to best treat it. We are all doing the best we can. The more time goes by, though, the more we know, so keep reading news so you can learn to do what is best for your family.
Q: Is COVID-19 real, and deadly?
A: YES. In China they are completely paranoid, implementing trace monitoring, checkpoints, quarantines, even spraying streets with chemicals. The Chinese Communist Party has complete control of the media and of people's lives. They don't need to manufacture a fake crisis to gain control because they already have it. And if it was fake, they wouldn't try to be covering it up. Please watch this video of what is really going on in China. It is absolutely chilling.
Q: If COVID-19 is real, why are so many hospitals mostly empty and are laying off workers?
A: Layoffs are happening because elective surgeries and so many other routine things have been suspended. Hospitals are running at below full capacity because Michigan's social distancing measures have WORKED. That's certainly better than running out of capacity and letting people die. The trick now is how to gradually decrease quarantine measures so that hospitals continue to have the capacity to treat the sick, versus a sudden spike that they can't handle. It's tough, because a change to policy now takes 3-8 weeks to see the effect, and people assume the state government is being too strict. Maybe they are, but we won't know for 3-8 weeks.
Q: What about the viral video of the two California doctors who think COVID-19 is no worse than the flu?
[NOTE: YouTube has already censored the video. Even though we disagree with some of the video's conclusions, we are NOT thrilled about censoring free speech. We need to find the truth ourselves, NOT let "wiser" people do it for us.]
A: They are experts with 30 years microbiology experience. Much of what they say is true. However they are not statisticans. They made a basic math error, that you can't extrapolate infection rate to the entire California population because you don't have a random sample. The people being tested are only those likely to have COVID-19. So the vast majority of Californians do NOT have COVID-19 yet, and you can't link the current death rate to those people. We respect these smart doctors, but they are frustrated like the rest of us, especially since it appears they aren't seeing many patients, so they were vulnerable to this mistake. The very end of part 2 of the video also shows their bias toward believing the government is trying to control us. (We don't trust the government either! But that doesn't mean they are wrong this time. You have to look at ALL the facts.)
Still don't believe it? The Wikipedia entry on influenza states that the common flu, on average, kills 36,000 people annually in the United States. As of late April, COVID-19 has already killed almost 50,000 nationally. Even if some of the deaths are over-reported, what's that number going to look like in December? It's REAL. Take it seriously!
Beware of sensationalist news. One bad story doesn't invalidate the real threat.
Read TOMAS PUEYO. He has a very good handle on what is going on and what to do, with practical suggestions. His articles are being read by millions and being endorsed by many.
MICHIGAN & SWEDEN CCP VIRUS (COVID-19) TRACKER - CUMULATIVE GRAPHS
Is the Michigan quarantine working? And is it too harsh? As stated before, we need to wait another 3-8 weeks to see the effects of decisions made now. So we here at MyColdwater.com are going to keep watching and waiting to see what happens.
We have decided to show Michigan CCP Virus statistics compared to... Sweden. Here's why:
Check back frequently for graph updates.
(Click on any graph to get to data source: Detroit Free Press and Statista.)
Click here for Michigan by-county breakdown, current only (no trend)
Wikipedia also has a breakdown by county in this long article.